WITHOUT significant intervention from government, levels of homelessness in Scotland are set to rise by a third over the next two years.

That means more people sleeping on the street, in cars, in garages and industrial premises, sofa-surfing or trapped in the most unsuitable forms of temporary accommodation by 2026.

That’s one of the key findings to emerge from the 2024 Scotland Homelessness Monitor. Commissioned by Crisis and produced by academics led by Heriot-Watt University, the study represents the most in-depth snapshot of homelessness in Scotland.

And the trends it reveals are deeply worrying. Some 18,400 households experiencing core homelessness – the most dangerous forms of homelessness – on any given night in 2022, up by 11% since 2020.

The use of bed and breakfast hotels across Scotland growing by 124% in the three years to March 2023 (from 789 to 1,765), and the length of time spent in temporary accommodation also increasing. 

More than half of councils reporting that demand had “significantly increased” in 2022/23 compared with the previous year. And a projected 33% rise in homelessness by 2026.

The UK Government’s decision to increase Local Housing Allowance will have some impact in the immediate term, but unless it is continued beyond 2025 we will still homelessness rise.

These numbers are stark. But they will not be a surprise to anyone working in homelessness in Scotland.

Because at Crisis, we see the consequences of the cost of living crisis and of the huge pressures being placed on the housing market every day. More people are walking through our doors, in need of support.

More families are struggling to feed or clothe their children. More people are having to spend nights on the street. These people are the human face of failed policy.

Yet while the report depicts a system under mounting strain, it also shows that, with the right intervention, preventing, reducing and ending homelessness is within reach.

In fact, the report found that, through a comprehensive package of measures, levels of homelessness could be cut by 56% by 2026. That would require the UK Government to raise Housing Benefit and the Scottish Government adopting new protections to prevent homelessness from happening in the first place.

And we know this is possible. Scotland has proven in the past that good policy can make a difference, and we can do it again. New plans to prevent homelessness, through allowing people to get help earlier, and widening responsibility for prevention across public services, would take pressure off the system and change the course of people’s lives.

We need to act now, because this report shows what will happen if we do nothing: more people forced into sofa surfing, into sleeping in cars or garages or on the street, or to live in forms of emergency accommodation that do not meet their needs.

But it also shows that it doesn’t need to be that way. By investing in homelessness services and by pushing on with plans to prevent homelessness, backed by adequate resource, the Scottish Government can stop that future from becoming a reality.

Matt Downie is chief executive of Crisis