Yes poll win would put Scotland in EU fast-lane, academics claim

Stressing a new mood of goodwill to Scotland after the Brexit vote, the pair cast doubt on many of the most commonly cited roadblocks to EU membership, including a much- repeated threat of a Spanish veto.

Read more: BBC director general to face "difficult questions" over Scottish Six decision

But they also stress the Scottish Government, if it manages to convince Scots to back independence, would face a complex transition as the UK negotiates its own exit from the bloc.

They also warn Scotland would lose its share of the UK rebate, hundreds of millions of pounds, and end up a small net contributor to the EU.

In their report they stressed how much European attitudes to Scottish independence have changed since EU President José Manuel Barroso, speaking in 2014, suggested it would be “extremely difficult” for Scotland to join the bloc. Last week, in contrast, the EU’s most senior official in the UK said there was no reason why Scotland could not do so.

Mr Lock and Ms Hughes write: “There is considerable political goodwill to Scotland in EU capitals since it is facing Brexit despite having voted to remain.

“That political goodwill, on current trends, is likely to feed into an effort to fast-track Scotland’s EU membership in the event of an independence vote.”

Spain, they add, is “unlikely” to veto Scotland after a legally agreed independence referendum.

Scotland, they say, already meets EU rules and, provided it did not tinker with legislation after Brexit or independence, would be able to smoothly meet entry requirements.

Read more: BBC director general to face "difficult questions" over Scottish Six decision

The academics write: “In the end, whether normal, fast-track or with a special transition deal, Scotland would face a fairly straightforward path to the EU.

“It might even have the fastest accession process of any EU state so far.”

The experts, however, believe that their assumed date of an independence referendum and EU exit – autumn 2018 and early 2019 – would not enable an independent Scotland to simply take over UK membership of the bloc.

Ms Hughes had previously suggested the SNP had already missed a deadline to hold an independence referendum fast enough to seamlessly remain in the EU.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her party continue to argue they are looking for a separate deal to allow Scotland to keep EU links and rights without a referendum.

Mr Lock and Ms Hughes cast doubt on the political reality of such an objective, which Ms Hughes first said was a possibility in this newspaper six months before the Brexit vote.

But the pair add: “The Scottish Government’s proposals for keeping Scotland in the UK and the EU single market are pertinent here. They SCOTLAND could have the fastest and easiest entry in to the EU ever if it becomes independent, say leading experts on the bloc’s accession rules.

In a landmark report published today, international academics Tobias Lock of Edinburgh University and Kirsty Hughes of Friends of Europe chart what the see as the straightforward path for a new Scottish state to be a full member of the EU by 2023.

Stressing a new mood of goodwill to Scotland after the Brexit vote, the pair cast doubts on many of the most commonly cited roadblocks to EU membership, including a much-repeated threat of a Spanish veto.

But they also stress that the Scottish Government, if it manages to convince Scots to back independence, would face a complex transition as the UK negotiates its own exit from the bloc.

Read more: BBC director general to face "difficult questions" over Scottish Six decision

They also warn that Scotland would lose its share of the British rebate, hundreds of millions of pounds, and end up a small net contributor to the EU.

In their report they stressed how much European attitudes to Scottish independence have changed since EU President José Manuel Barroso, speaking in 2014, suggested it would be ‘extremely difficult’ for Scotland to join the bloc.

Last week, in contrast, the EU’s most senior official in the UK has said there is no reason why Scotland could not do so.

Mr Lock and Ms Hughes write: “There is considerable political goodwill to Scotland in EU capitals since it is facing Brexit despite having voted to remain. That political goodwill, on current trends, is likely to feed into an effort to fast-track Scotland’s EU membership in the event of an independence vote.”

Spain, they add, is “unlikely” to veto Scotland after a legally agreed independence referendum. Scotland, they say, already meets EU rules and, provided it did not tinker with legislation after Brexit or independence, would be able to smoothly meet entry requirements.

The academics write: “In the end, whether normal, fast-track or with a special transition deal, Scotland would face a fairly straightforward path to the EU. It might even have the fastest accession process of any EU state so far.”

The experts, however, believe that their assumed date of an independence referendum and EU exit - autumn 2018 and early 2019 - would not enable an independent Scotland to simply take over UK membership of the bloc.

Ms Hughes has previously suggested that the SNP has already missed a deadline to hold an independence referendum fast enough to seamlessly remain in the EU.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her party continue to argue that they are looking for a separate deal to allow Scotland to keep EU links and rights without a referendum.

Mr Lock and Ms Hughes cast doubt on the political reality of such an objective, which Ms Hughes first revealed as a possibility in this newspaper six months before the Brexit vote.

However, the pair add: “The Scottish Government’s proposals for keeping Scotland in the UK and the EU single market are pertinent here. They look tricky for a long-standing deal, but as a road map for Scotland’s transition to a full EU member state, they could come into their own.”

An independent Scotland, they said, should use membership of EFTA, with Norway and Switzerland, as a stop-gap while it waits to join the EU.
Mr Lock is a German legal expert and Ms Hughes is a former head of the London think tank, Chatham House, who has covered accession agreements to the EU extensively for years. 

Both experts dismissed widely reported suggestions Scotland would be forced into the euro or the Schengen travel area, which would  be likely to mean passport controls with England. 

Some commentators are arguing Scotland would be forced to comply with tough deficit controls to join the EU, despite the fact even the most recent entry nation, Croatia, has not done so. 

Ms Hughes said an independent Scotland would be allowed to phase in deficit reductions. She added: “Scotland would not have to reduce its budget to under three per cent before it could join.”

Labour’s David Martin, Scotland’s most senior MEP, echoed many of the findings. He said: “The best way to keep Scotland in Europe would be for Theresa May to end her mad, bad and dangerous obsession with Brexit at all costs. 

“The present UK Government is the biggest threat to Scotland’s membership of the EU, not the Spanish Government."

But Mr Martin added: “I agree with the authors that Scotland would have to leave along with the rest of the UK, but that an independent Scotland would have one of the easiest succession negotiations ever – but caution that, in my view, this might still take four or five years from beginning of negotiations to full membership.”

Ian Duncan, the Conservatives’ Scottish MP, said the new report “raised more questions than it answered”.

Alyn Smith, the SNP MEP, said: “This serious and credible report underlines that all the doors in the EU are open to Scotland. Obviously, an independence process will have technical issues to overcome, but it is housekeeping, not principle.”