FOR those enjoying this week’s spring recess at Holyrood and the slightly muted volume on Brexit and a second independence referendum, I bring terrible news. The conference season is coming. A month of pre-election gatherings kicks off next weekend, and the arguments over Scotland’s relationship with the EU and the rest of the UK will be cranked right back up again.

First, Scottish Labour, which hopes to fill three days of stage and air-time in Perth. Then the formerly sheepish Scottish Tories gather in Glasgow for the first time since 1999. The second weekend in March sees the Greens muster in the city and the Liberal Democrats in Perth. Both will focus on attacking Philip Hammond’s Budget on March 8.

Finally, the SNP returns to Aberdeen in mid-March, by when Theresa May could have posted her Article 50 withdrawal letter to Brussels. With Brexit heavy in the air, Nicola Sturgeon is likely to announce the next step towards a second referendum. There is speculation she might name the date but I suspect she may opt for process instead.

At the SNP conference last autumn, the First Minister announced a consultation on a draft referendum bill. It closed on January 11. So there would be a neat symmetry in announcing the outcome and asking Mrs May to grant Holyrood the power to help turn the draft bill into law. It wouldn’t commit the cautious Ms Sturgeon to having a referendum – she could say she was still holding out hope for an eleventh-hour bespoke Scottish Brexit – but it would be red meat for her troops.

A huge amount of planning has gone into these events, which the parties see as springboards for May’s council poll. But as with so much of politics and life, "events" have taken over. Labour’s extravaganza, for instance, starts the day after the Scottish budget is passed, giving it a handy hook on which to hang complains about SNP-Green cuts.

But it also opens just hours after the Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland by-elections are declared. Both contests were caused by Labour MPs resigning to take good jobs with prospects. If Jeremy Corbyn is lucky, Labour will fend off Ukip’s Paul Nuttall in the former seat. But the Tories are almost a dead cert in Copeland, meaning Mr Corbyn will be the first leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition in 35 years to lose a by-election to the governing party.

Kezia Dugdale wants to showcase her plan for a new federal UK in Perth; good luck with that. All the talk will be about whether Mr Corbyn, whom she opposed as becoming leader, still has a future. He’s due to speak on Sunday. If he shows up, he’ll be mobbed by the media. If he doesn’t, it’ll be cast as a crisis. If he fails to mentions the by-elections, he’ll be accused of being in denial. If he does, it’ll be the only clip that makes it onto TV. The impression received by many voters, despite Ms Dugdale’s best efforts, may simply be that Labour is the party of chaos.

The other intriguing conference is the SNP’s. The last time the party went to Aberdeen there was one protest, about the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act. This time, I suspect there will be rather more. Although an SNP heartland, the north-east is also a hotbed of Tories, Unionists and Brexiters. As delegates debate independence and Europe inside, their opponents may be bawling outside. The SNP could always dismiss that as low politics.

But the region is also in revolt over a ham-fisted business rates revaluation. If a lot of suits protest against the SNP it would tarnish its business-friendly image. Aberdeen could be a tricky moment for a party trying to keep its head above the flotsam of 10 years in office, especially as it tries to persuade voters to give one more heave for independence. Events. Don't you just love them?